On-chain data shows that Bitcoin’s (BTC) “ancient supply” is increasing faster than new BTC daily issuance, according to a June 18 research by Fidelity Digital Assets.

The report treats ancient supply as Bitcoins that have remained unmoved for at least a decade, and it counted an average of 566 BTC entering the 10-year-plus cohort daily since April 2024, surpassing the 450 BTC miners currently add to circulation every day.

The milestone arrived less than a year after the 2024 block-reward halving cut issuance in half, redefining the network’s supply dynamics. 

Ancient supply represents more than 17% of all mined Bitcoin, about 3.4 million BTC worth roughly $360 billion at $107,000 per coin, up from near zero when the metric was first calculated at the start of 2019. 

Satoshi Nakamoto holds 33% of this stash, while another unknown portion may be irretrievably lost. However, analysts note that any coin can still be brought back into active use.

Conviction and volatility

Daily declines in the 10-year bucket occur less than 3% of the time, but the share rises to 13% when the threshold drops to five-year holders. 

The report highlighted that the post-2024 US election period increased churn among even the most steadfast wallets. Since November, the ancient supply has shrunk on 10% of trading days, quadrupling its historical average. 

Movement from 5- to 10-year holders appears more sensitive. Coins aged at least five years exited their bucket on 39% of days over the same span, triple the norm. 

The report linked that surge to first-quarter sideways prices, arguing that heightened distribution from older cohorts can mute short-term upside even while net scarcity rises.

HODL rate turns positive

Fidelity also assessed the “HODL rate,” defined as the ancient supply inflows minus new issuance.

The measure flipped positive in April 2024 and averages positive 116 Bitcoin per day, reinforcing the idea that a hardening core of holders is absorbing circulation faster than miners can replace it. 

Because Bitcoin’s issuance schedule is programmed to decrease with halvings, the firm projects that the circulating supply will reach 20% of all Bitcoin by that year and 25% by 2034, based on current trends.

Public corporations may accelerate the trend. Twenty-seven listed companies now collectively hold more than 800,000 BTC. 

Fidelity’s model predicted that the ancient supply will exceed 30% of the float by 2035 if firms with 1,000 BTC or more continue to hold coins on their balance sheets. 

Despite the suggested scarcity, it does not guarantee higher prices without the appropriate level of demand to absorb it.

However, a durable rise in long-term controlled coins tightens the float available to traders and increasingly ties price discovery to marginal flows. 

Fidelity concluded that Bitcoin now stands apart from commodities with elastic supply.

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