Bitcoin exchange inflows over the past month have been driven almost entirely by freshly moved supply, with minimal involvement from long-dormant holders.

Nearly three-quarters of all daily deposits across major exchanges consisted of coins that had last moved less than 24 hours earlier, pointing to high-frequency repositioning activity rather than strategic distribution.

This type of churn, dominated by recent outputs and large-value transactions, suggests that the bulk of near-term sell-side pressure stems from professional entities cycling liquidity or managing inventory rather than from broader capitulation among long-term participants.

The dominance of ultra-fresh supply is consistent across the dataset. On average, coins younger than 24 hours comprised 75.3% of all daily inflows between April 6 and May 6. The highest single-day reading occurred on May 6, when this bracket represented 86.2% of all inflows.

Another spike in short-term coin movement appeared on May 3, when the 1–7 day age band surged to 44.3%. This was the only day in the sample when longer, though still recent, coin movement outpaced same-day turnover.

Despite these variations, the overarching pattern remains unchanged: the vast majority of inflows are driven by coins that were either newly minted or recently circulated rather than by older or untouched holdings.

Long-term holders, meanwhile, have shown almost no activity in this period. Coins older than one year comprised just 0.7% of all inflows on average, peaking at 7.6% on April 10 but otherwise remaining below 1%. This lack of participation from older supply indicates that deep-pocketed holders continue to exercise patience, opting to hold rather than take advantage of recent price strength. Their absence also limits the probability of an abrupt surge in exchange-based supply that could weigh on price action in the short term.

The nature of inflows is further clarified by examining the value distribution of these deposits. Transfers between 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC accounted for a dominant share of daily inflow value, averaging 47.8% over the past week and reaching as high as 67.8% on May 3. These block-sized transfers signal activity from institutional desks, custodians, or ETF market makers rather than retail participants.

Supporting this, the 1,000–10,000 BTC band grew from a 7.9% average share in mid-April to 10.7% in early May, with a notable 30.5% spike on April 29. Although infrequent, a single 10,000+ BTC transfer was recorded on April 25, contributing 2.1% of that day’s volume. Large-scale movements like this one are rare and likely represent internal rebalancing or cross-platform transfers rather than simple liquidation.

Retail activity appears minimal by contrast. Inflows below 1 BTC averaged just 3% across the entire period. This low figure reinforces the idea that current exchange activity is primarily driven by institutional actors rather than a groundswell of smaller traders or panic selling. It also highlights the ongoing detachment between retail sentiment and market structure, as price volatility continues to be shaped primarily by large-scale movements rather than grassroots engagement.

When age and value are combined, a clear pattern emerges. The overwhelming share of exchange deposits originates from coins moved within the same day, and those deposits are increasingly delivered in large batches. This convergence of freshness and scale points toward automated or desk-based activity such as arbitrage, liquidity provisioning, or ETF-related demand. This behavior differs from past market tops or panic-driven phases, where older supply resurfaces, and smaller holders dominate the outflow pattern.

The persistent absence of older coins suggests that long-term holders are not seizing recent price moves as an opportunity to exit. Instead, exchange deposits remain structurally tied to professional cycles. The dominance of block-sized transfers also implies that any sustained price swings will likely require confirmation through more profound shifts in coin age distribution or a rise in retail-sized flow.

Finally, the reappearance of larger whale-sized inflows in early May followed the changes in Bitcoin derivatives markets, including a jump in open interest and increased directional positioning. The expansion of the 1,000–10,000 BTC bracket could be an early indicator of strategic reallocation or upcoming large-volume trades, especially as ETF flows and institutional interest continue to dominate spot volumes.

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