CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has revised his earlier prediction that the Bitcoin (BTC) bull cycle had ended, citing a shift in market structure and significant inflows through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that are helping to absorb sell pressure.
In a May 9 social media post, Ju acknowledged his March forecast was premature and the current market conditions indicate that the Bitcoin cycle theory may have evolved beyond its historic patterns.
New Players, new patterns
Historically, Bitcoin’s price cycles were driven by a narrow set of actors: early whales, miners, and retail traders. These players often operated in a boom-and-bust pattern, with whales unloading large amounts of Bitcoin when retail interest waned, triggering cascades of sell-offs.
Ju likened this to “a game of Musical Chairs,” where everyone tried to exit at the same time, leaving late movers stuck with depreciating assets.
Now, with institutional investors, Strategy, and even government agencies entering the market, Ju believes the landscape has changed. These actors tend to have longer investment horizons and operate under different motivations, such as treasury diversification or regulated fund mandates.
Ju believes this new base of demand is helping absorb sell pressure more efficiently and smooth out the volatility that once defined Bitcoin’s cycle tops.
He said:
“…It feels like it’s time to throw out that cycle theory.”
Sluggish but stable
Despite recent bullish price movements, Ju described the current phase as sluggish, noting that most on-chain indicators remain near neutral. While the market isn’t showing the explosive upside typical of past peaks, it’s also not collapsing under profit-taking pressure.
He believes the steady inflows from ETFs are a key factor supporting prices, allowing Bitcoin to absorb old supply without triggering the usual cycle of panic selling. This suggests a maturing market structure, where capital rotation happens more gradually and less destructively.
A long-term chart shared by Ju shows Bitcoin’s profit-taking signal flattening compared to prior tops, reflecting a slower, more stable adjustment rather than a dramatic reversal.
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