Fidelity Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer today highlighted that Bitcoin reclaiming the $100,000 level this week coincides with a convergence of its 52-week Sharpe ratio with gold.
Timmer said,
After a strong run by gold, perhaps the baton is being passed again to Bitcoin, with Bitcoin back above $100k and the two Sharpe Ratios now converging… At a 4:1 ratio, gold’s volatility has been roughly equal to Bitcoin, as has its relative performance.
— Jurrien Timmer, X post, 16 May 2025
Key numbers
- Bitcoin price: ≈ $103,600 (16 May 2025)
- Gold price: ≈ $3,213 / oz (16 May 2025)
- 52-week Sharpe ratio: Gold 1.33 | Bitcoin -0.40
- Timmer allocation heuristic: 4 parts gold, 1 part Bitcoin
Gold has produced 67 record closes since early 2024 and remains about 33 % higher year-to-date. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is up roughly 25 % from its April low of nearly $76,000. The resulting Sharpe convergence suggests Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted performance is approaching that of bullion.
Why the 4:1 mix matters
By scaling gold exposure to four times that of Bitcoin, Timmer finds that historical volatility and cumulative returns align closely.
The rule of thumb frames the two assets as complementary stores of value rather than competitors, offering allocators a template to balance inflation hedging with upside participation in the digital-asset market.
- Portfolio construction: A blended sleeve may temper Bitcoin’s drawdowns without sacrificing long-term real-return potential.
- Rotation watch: A softening gold trend and improving Bitcoin Sharpe could prompt tactical rebalancing toward crypto.
- Risks: Bitcoin’s Sharpe remains negative; regulatory actions or liquidity shocks could widen the gap again.
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